NFL 2005 Week 5 Predictions

It's always good to have a good week, and going 9-5 counts as a good week.

With New England dropping to 2-2 and looking more vulnerable than they have since before their run of greatness, some are saying it's about time the Patriots fell back to Earth and let someone else win, that it's bad for the league to have one team dominate so much. Well, the NFL survived the Steeler reign in the 70's and the Cowboys' dominance in the 90's. I understand the argument for parity. I can just imagine what it was like for fans back in the 70's, knowing every season that if your team wasn't in Pittsburgh, Oakland, Dallas, Minnesota, or Los Angeles, you weren't going to win a division title or play in the Super Bowl. In those 10 years (Super Bowls V-XIV), the NFC was represented in the big game by either the Cowboys or the Vikings 8 times. The AFC was a little more diverse, with Miami and Pittsburgh only accounting for 7 of the 10 games. While Oakland didn't go to too many Super Bowls, they sure lost quite a few AFC title games, as did the Rams in the NFC. If you were a fan of the Browns or Lions or anyone else, you knew before the season even started your team was playing for the lone wildcard spot.

Nowadays, each season starts fresh. Teams come out of nowhere to win Super Bowls. In the last five years, only two teams (Eagles and Packers) have managed so much as simply winning 3 straight division titles. Clearly, this is better for fans overall.

But doesn't the league need a gold standard, even in an age of parity? If the Super Bowl was simply a carousel of winners, teams rising up for a year at random to win big, then falling away, what would that win mean? Not much more than saying their turn came up. Having pure parity would cheapen victory so much as to become meaningless. The league needs a gold standard, someone to measure themselves against. The Ravens won the title in 2000, and the Bucs in 2002. But they aren't a standard the way the Patriots, who won in 2001, 2003, and 2004 are. Do we really want to measure everyone against teams like the 2000 Ravens?

So I do support parity. It would indeed be bad for the Patriots to just keep on winning Super Bowls, or winning most and losing the occasional one. But at the same time, the league needs teams like New England to rise up and dominate the league for a time.

Onto this week....

Ravens @ Lions
On paper, this should be a matchup between a good to very good Lion offense against a good to very good Raven defense. On paper. The Lion offense is nowhere near as good as the talent level on the squad would suggest. With all those first round draft pick receivers, they should be much better. But they aren't. On the other hand, the Ravens are downright dismal on offense. The biggest mistake the franchise made in the last five years is getting rid of Trent Dilfer. With all the QBs they've gone through since, they have never gotten close to what he brought to the table. Anyway, I think the Lions have a halfway decent defense to go with a halfway decent offense, which is more than I can say for Baltimore. Prediction: Lions.

Dolphins @ Bills
Miami is a real surprise this year. They are actually in first place in the division, one shared with New England. It probably hasn't happened in two years that someone other than the Patriots held the top stop in the division all alone. The Bills are a crushing disappointment. The Losman experiment has gone about as well as one could expect, well as well as anyone outside the Bill organization would have expected. The Bill defense, the heart of the team, has been hit by injury. This really is pretty simple. Both team have good defenses, one has a good offense. Prediction: Dolphins.

Saints @ Packers
The Packer offense showed some life last week in a losing effort against the Panthers. Nearly half of Favre's 9 touchdown passes this season came in that game (4). Brett's big problem this year has been interceptions, but that shouldn't be a big problem against a weak Saint defense. Both teams have potentially explosive offenses and almost always implosive defenses. In the end, Favre is still the better quarterback. And the truth is that three of their four losses were certainly winnable. They have lost the last three games by a total of 6 points, so the Packers could easily be 2-2 right now, but for mistakes. New Orleans is not in the same class as the teams who have taken advantage of those errors to beat the Packers. Prediction: Packers.

Bucs @ Jets
The Jets start their 3rd different quarterback this week, with Testaverde coming out of retirement to replace Pennington, who replaced Testaverde a couple of years ago. The man is 41 and hasn't thrown a meaningful ball in quite a while. And they will throw him in against one of the better defenses in the league. This won't be pretty. Prediction: Bucs.

Bears @ Browns
The Bears have a good defense but nothing on offense. Cleveland, on the other hand, can be pretty effective on offense. They aren't as good on defense, but that's not a big deal against the Bear offense. Prediction: Browns.

Patriots @ Falcons
At first glance, this would seem to be a clear choice for Atlanta. The Pats got blown out last week by San Diego and were torched by the Charger running game. Their defense has been hit hard by injuries and are clearly not the unit they have been these last years. The Patriot running game continues to struggle, actually ranking last in the league, and the Falcons have a strong run defense. In fact they have a strong front seven who attack the line and create chaos in the passing game. Just ask Daunte Culpepper. Everything points to Atlanta, right? But here's what the stats don't say. The Falcon offense is extremely one dimensional. Granted, what they do with that one dimension (running) is fantastic. But it's still just one thing. Take that away and you take the Falcon offense away. The Chargers feature a robust, mutli-headed offense with strong running and several targets in the passing game. The Falcons have none of that. So, rather than having to dial back their linebackers' aggressive attacking play to help out the weak secondary, the Patriot defensive front can do what they do best which is attack the line and the run. Blitz Brady? He's seen that many times. Unlike Minnesota, which emphasizes the big downfield pass, Brady can just hit his hot reads for short passes which will then force the Falcon defense to play back a bit, opening up the running game and the deep pass. And the biggest intangible of all: Patriot attitude. There were several articles in the past week expressing sympathy and even pity for the Patriots because of injuries. Do you think the Patriot players and coaches politely thanked all those people for their best wishes? Or do you think there might be more of an attitude of, "These people #*$%^&ing#@%^&ing PITY us! We're the %^*!#ing PATRIOTS and we'll show you where you shove your PITY!" Prediction: Patriots.

Seahawks @ Rams
The Seahawks have Rams on the brain. Last year's season started so well for Seattle, until the 4th quarter of their first matchup with their division rivals from St. Louis. After blowing a huge lead in that game, the 'Hawks never recovered and their promising season went to 9-7 and got a playoff spot only because they play in (a) the NFC West, the division no one wanted to win, and (b) the NFC in general. The run included a second loss to St. Louis, and a third in the playoffs. The Seahawks have a mental problem similar to the Vikings: they don't respond well to adversity. This time, they are coming off a sloppy loss to the Redskins. And if that weren't bad enough, the Rams have an excellent home record. Prediction: Rams.

Titans @ Texans
The battle for the bottom of the AFC South begins. I don't know how to predict this game. The Titans have given up a mountain of points, but have also scored a lot. But the caliber of opposing offense has to be taken into consideration when looking at points allowed. The Texans have given up fewer points, but have scored next to nothing. But the caliber of opposing defense has to be taken into consideration when looking at points scored. I'll go with the home team. Prediction: Texans.

Colts @ 49ers
Oh my. Just what the struggling 49ers needed, a visit from perhaps the best team in the league. And they will start a rookie making his first start at QB. My only question is, will this be over in the first quarter, or will the 49ers hang in until halftime? Prediction: Colts.

Eagles @ Cowboys
This should be a good game. The Eagle defense has given up a lot of points the last two weeks, playing some very good offenses in Oakland and KC. Dallas' defense has done a decent job, excepting the 49er game, in terms of points allowed. Of course, Philly has the higher ranked pass defense, which shows how rankings can be deceptive. The Eagle defensive front has accumulated a good number of sacks this year. So they will bring a whole lot of pressure to granite footed QB Drew Bledsoe. (Dallas has too, but the Eagle offensive line is much better.) That will lead to mistakes and turnovers, and an Eagle win. Prediction: Eagles.

Panthers @ Cardinals
The Panthers are off to an inconsistent start, and a visit to the Cardinals is just what the doctor ordered to get them on track. Prediction: Panthers.

Redskins @ Broncos
Can you believe it? A Redskin team with Mark Brunell at QB actually scored 20 points! Amazing! This game will feature two good defenses, and one good offense. Denver won't score as much as it usually does, but they may only need 14 points to win. Prediction: Broncos.

Bengals @ Jaguars
The Bengals are off to an impressive 4-0 start, but this will be the first quality opponent they have faced. Their offense is one of the best, and the defense is starting to come together. The Jags have a better defense, and Leftwich is one of the better QBs in the league. But they don't have enough weapons on offense. The passing game is almost all Jimmy Smith. This is why they have not done very well against better defenses (3 points against the Colts, 7 points against the Broncos). Prediction: Bengals.

Steelers @ Chargers
San Diego looks pretty dangerous. Coach Schottenheimer has finally retired Marty-ball, allowing his offense to take full advantage of the numerous weapons available. Drew Brees looks to have solidified his position as the franchise quarterback, which of course presents the problem of what to do with Philip Rivers. LT is perhaps the best running back in the game today. Facing this powerhouse offense is Pittsburgh's patented powerhouse defense. Interestingly, at least from a rankings point of view, both defenses are similar: strong against the rush (11th and 7th for the Steelers and Chargers respectively) and weaker against the pass (20th and 26th respectively). So, the game really appears to come down to the two QBs and their passing game. Here, I have to give the edge to Pittsburgh. Brees is the better quarterback, but Roethlisberger has a better receiving corps and the Steeler defense has Troy Polamalu. Prediction: Steelers.

Last Week: 9-5
Season: 30-30